Tropical Storm Bonnie (Potential Scenario)
Tropical Storm Bonnie was a moderate but surprisingly deadly tropical storm in Late-May to Early-June 2016. The 2nd named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season which made landfall in South Carolina, similar to Ana of 2015. Bonnie formed from a disturbance on May 29, just in time to ruin peoples Memorial Day plans from Florida to North Carolina with rough surf, flooding rains, and brisk winds. Bonnie caused, in total, 21 deaths, mainly from rip currents along the coast. Meteorological History The precursor to Tropical Storm Bonnie originally formed on May 21 as a tropical wave that had emerged from the Carribean into the Atlantic near the Bahamas. As soon as the wave emerged into the Atlantic, models immediately began to predict that this wave will have subtropical/tropical development. The wave slowly consolidated, similarly to the forcasters predictions, therefore warranting the NHC to classify the wave as Invest 91L on May 23 with a 30% chance of formation in the next 5 days. Organazation slowly increased, and by May 26, the NHC was giving it a 80% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of formation in the next 5 days. On May 27, Invest 91L achieved the rather rare classification of a near 100% chance of formation in the next 5 days from the NHC. Early in the morning on May 28, the NHC officially classified Bonnie as a subtropical storm with winds of 45 MPH and a pressure of 1007 mbars. Effects were already being felt along the North Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts, with rough surf and rip currents already claiming 5 lives. Sailers of small crafts were recommended to stay in their ports to avoid capsizing their boats in the choppy seas. 1 sailor, however, did not heed the warning and was presumed dead when he did not return to port and was not reported to have returned to any other port, bringing the death toll from Bonnie up to 6. On May 30, the NHC reported that Bonnie had transitioned to a tropical storm and had intensified to 50 MPH and a pressure of 1004 Mbars, 70 rip current rescues had to be made, 5 of which were unsuccessful and resulted in drowning of 5 people. On May 31, Bonnie reached its peak intensity at 55 MPH and a pressure of 1001 Mbars. Minor coastal flooding was reported and minor wind damage was reported as well from Bonnie's outer bands. A pair of tornadoes, a EF0 and a EF1, were also reported in South Carolina, causing minor damage. During mid-afternoon on June 1, Bonnie made landfall at peak intensity in South Carolina 10 miles north of Charlestown. Heavy rain caused street flooding and winds gusting up to near hurricane force were believed to have been the culprits of a major car crash at an intersection, due to the slick roads, killing 4. A man died of heart attack and a women died when an electrical pole fell on her house while she was inside, which, then, caused a fire. Bonnie began to rapidly weaken several hours after landfall due to land interaction. By late evening, Bonnie had weakened to a 40 MPH storm and a pressure of 1008 Mbars. Early in the morning on June 2, Bonnie weakened to a tropical depression with winds of 35 MPH and a pressure of 1010 Mbars. Bonnie continued to spread showers and thunderstorms across the region as it was weakening. Some wind gusts to tropical storm force were reported in North Carolina as the storm was progressing through the state. By mid-evening, the NHC reported that Tropical Depression Bonnie has lost tropical characteristics and no longer had a closed center of circulation, signaling the dissipation of Bonnie. Through the course of 2 more days, Bonnie's remnants moved up the east coast, bringing thundershowers and, at times, some brisk winds. Bonnie's remnants finally dissipated over New York. Impacts Impacts from Bonnie were moderate in most places. In total, Bonnie caused 22 deaths: 17 direct, 4 indirect, and 1 missing. Most direct deaths can be attributed to rip currents caused by the storm while it was still off the coast. Bonnie kept most ships and sailors in their ports, to avoid capsizing or any other issues. Total damage from Bonnie amounted to $40 million (2016 USD), mainly from the large car crash and street flooding due to underground levels suffering water intrusion. Beach erosion was moderate to severe along the affected coast, and severe near point of landfall. In all, Bonnie was not retired and used again in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Category:2016 Atlantic hurricane season Category:Future storms Category:Subtropical Cyclones